Commodities Weekly Research Report: Gold (XAU/USD) just posted its second failure on bullish news in three sessions. It took a gain at the weekly open on the weakest US jobs report in months on Friday, then gave it all back by settlement. The two most recent FXStreet analyses disagree on what that failure means: one argues the yellow metal’s trend is still set by rising long-term US Treasury yields – and points lower –, while the other argues Gold’s resilience above $4,000 despite those same yields is the real signal, with structural drivers pointing higher.
The takeaway
Two analysts look at the same post-jobs-report Gold market and reach opposite conclusions. Radomski reads the metal’s second failure on bullish news in three sessions as proof the trend is still governed by the long end of the bond market — and points lower. Sokolidou reads Gold’s refusal to break below $4,000 in the face of 20-year-high yields as evidence of structural demand that will ultimately win out. Watch the long-term Treasury yield and the US Dollar’s driver: if yields keep rising and the US Dollar’s gains are US-driven, Radomski’s bearish read holds; if central-bank and safe-haven demand keep absorbing the pressure, Sokolidou’s resilience thesis wins.