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Gold rallies after US jobs data
Gold rebounded from just above the key $2,600 psychological level on Thursday after the release of official US Jobless Claims data showed a surprising spike in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits. US Treasury yields dipped after the release, the US Dollar (USD) marginally weakened and Gold got a lift.
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US Initial Jobless Claims in the week ending October 4 rose by 258K, above the 225K of the previous week and expectations of 230K, data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed. The rise in initial claims was well above the average, although this might have been caused by the exodus from Florida ahead of the impact of Hurricane Milton, according to Bloomberg News.
Continuing Claims for the week ending September 27 rose to 1.861 million, higher than the revised-down 1.819M of the previous week and roundly above the 1.830M estimate.
Inflation
Overall, the data showed weakness creeping into the jobs market, which is likely to keep the Fed on track to cut interest rates (in order to stimulate borrowing and job creation) at its November policy meeting. In August, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled he was shifting his focus from inflation to the Fed’s other mandate: “full employment”.
Although the market-based probability of the Fed lowering its fed funds rate by 50 basis points (bps) (0.50%) remained at zero after the release, the chances of a smaller 25 bps (0.25%) cut rose to 89% from 85% before the jobs’ data, according to the CME Fedwatch tool. The probability of the Fed leaving its key interest rate unchanged in November fell to 11% from 15%. These probabilities have since reverted to 85% for 25 bps and 15% for no-change.
Higher-than-expected inflation data, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, released at the same time as the Jobless Claims’ data, failed to act as a counter-weight. Headline CPI climbed 2.4% year-over-year (YoY) from 2.3% previously, and core CPI rose 3.3% YoY from 3.2% previously. The higher inflation would normally be expected to increase bets of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged to continue the fight against stubbornly high inflation, however, this was not the case on Thursday. This was probably due to the Fed’s new prioritization of employment.
Fed Policymakers
Gold has recently gained a further backdraught from the speeches of Fed policymakers. A long list of officials commented on the outlook for monetary policy on Wednesday, and all were assessed as either neutral or dovish according to the FXStreet FedTracker, a new AI-powered tool that gauges the tone of Fed officials’ speeches on a dovish-to-hawkish scale from 0 to 10.
Gold could also be gaining due to attracting safe-haven flows amid elevated geopolitical tensions. Israel has stepped up its bombing of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, causing substantial collateral damage, and investors remain on tenterhooks about the scale of Israel’s almost certain retaliation against Iran.
MCX Gold Tips (Jackpot Call)
- ✅Buy MCX Gold Above 75,666 Target Price 76,425——77000.
- ✅Any Panic Buy Gold, Don’t Sell Gold
- ✅Nearby Support: 75,600
- ✅Nearby Resistance: 77,000
- ✅Gold Next Week Target Price 77,000+++
MCX Diwali 2024 Jackpot Call By Neal Bhai
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