Iron ore prices sank below $90/t for the first time since 2022 yesterday as China gloom continues to deepen. Iron ore is one of the worst-performing commodities so far this year, with prices now down about 33% year-to-date. We believe price risks are increasingly skewed to the downside for the industrial metal as the outlook in China, the biggest buyer, continues to deteriorate. Iron ore port holdings in China continue to rise, now back above 150 million tonnes and standing at their highest ever for the time of year, a sign of abundant seaborne supplies.
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Steel inventories at major Chinese steel mills fell to 14.5mt – the lowest level since January – in late August. This was down 11.6% compared to mid-August, according to data from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA). Steel inventories are 1.2% lower than in the same period last year. Crude steel production at major mills fell by 5.4% from mid-August to 1.89mt/d (the lowest in eight months) in late August, as more domestic steel mills scaled back operations at their blast furnaces in response to heavy losses.
