Base Metals Forecast 2022: The year 2021 was robust for the base metals complex. After surging in 2020, metal prices continued to rise in 2021 as well.
The Bloomberg Base Metal Spot Price Index surged 32.8 per cent in 2021 after witnessing a 19 per cent rally in 2020, closing at 278.83 for the year 2021.
Among the metals, Aluminium outperformed others by rising about 42 per cent last year. The Aluminium 3-month rolling forwards contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose from $1,979.50 per tonne in 2020 to close the year 2021 at $2,807.5, up 41.83 per cent.
Zinc, Copper and Nickel prices on the LME were up 28.46 per cent, 25.17 per cent and 24.94 per cent respectively. LME Lead prices rose by 15.55 per cent, underperforming peers for the second consecutive year.
Supply disruptions due to locked shipments and energy crisis in China in the second half of 2021 were the major factors that drove metal prices higher. Coupled with this, increased demand on the back of the easy money from stimulus measures of global central banks also supported metal prices in 2021.
Will the rally continue in 2022? Both fundamental and technical factors point otherwise. Here’s more:
Slowdown in China
China is the world’s largest producer and consumer of base metals. The energy crisis in China in the second half of 2021 saw metal prices surging on the back of supply cuts. Seasonal production cuts in the country also pushed up prices. However, an easing energy situation alongside possible increase in production after winter — possibly from March — can aid supplies and soften metal prices.
Besides, data shows that China’s Construction Business Activity Index has been on a decline. The index has dropped from 62.3 in March to 56.3 in December last year. Other economic activity data points also indicate a slowdown in China. For instance, the ‘new export order’ metric under the Purchasing Managers’ Index for China has also come down, from 51.2 in March to 48.1 in December last year. So, unless growth in China’s property sector picks up pace, demand is likely to remain subdued.
The IMF projects China to grow at 5.6 per cent in 2022, significantly down from the 8 per cent growth seen for 2021. So, a slowdown in China, coupled with a possible increase in supply, can drag metal prices lower.
Flat global growth
The global economy has recovered well after having hit a trough in 2020 on the back of the coronavirus outbreak. However, the growth across key geographies is likely to slow down in 2022 as compared to 2021. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects the global economy to grow at a slower pace of 4.9 per cent in 2022, from a projected 5.9 per cent growth in 2021. The US Federal Reserve has forecast the US to grow at a slower 4 per cent in 2022 compared to a projected growth of 5.5 per cent in 2021. According to the IMF, the growth in the Euro area is likely to slow down, from 5 per cent in 2021 to 4.3 per cent in 2022.
History shows that a year of slower growth compared to the previous year has always resulted in a fall in metal prices. In 2011, 2015 and 2018 — when global growth slowed down from the previous years — the base metals price index tumbled to give negative returns. The Bloomberg Base Metals Spot Price Index had tumbled 23 per cent, 24 per cent and 17 per cent respectively in these years. As such, the expected slowdown in global economic growth in 2022 is more likely to drag metal prices lower.
Easing freight cost
The lockdowns and travel restrictions imposed in 2020-2021 stalled the shipment of goods across countries and took freight costs sharply higher. The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of average price paid for shipping dry bulk commodities, skyrocketed 311 per cent from 1374 in January to 5650 in October last year as shipments stalled. Thereafter, the index has come off sharply by 59 per cent to 2,289, indicating easing of prices and resumption of shipments. Low freight cost can increase the shipments and improve the supply crunch, which in turn can ease commodity prices.
Metals Higher supply, lower demand
The base metals complex is largely likely to be in surplus in 2022. Many closed down smelters are set to resume operations, easing the supply disruption caused in the second half of 2021. Demand, on the other hand, is likely to remain moderate.
The easy money available in the form of pandemic stimulus from the global central banks was also one of the major drivers of prices in 2021. This easy money is likely to vanish in 2022 and can bring down the demand. Major central banks like the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have already begun the process of winding down the stimulus. In addition to this, the uncertainty prevailing over the spread and impact of the Omicron variant remains a threat to demand.
The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) has forecasted a surplus of 24,000 tonnes in lead and 44,000 tonnes in zinc for the year 2022. However, these are lower than the surplus of 27,000 tonnes and 217,000 tonnes in lead and zinc respectively estimated for 2021. Nickel is likely to turn to a surplus after a deficit forecast in 2021. According to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG), nickel can end with a surplus of 76,000 tonnes following a projected deficit of 165,000 tonnes in 2021. Copper is forecast to run into a surplus of 328,000 tonnes in 2022 from a deficit of 42,000 tonnes in 2021. The fact that supply is likely to outpace demand in 2022 can keep metal prices under check.
Read More: Copper Market to be Well Supplied in 2022 – Neal Bhai
INDUSTRIAL METALS
CITI “We remain very bullish back-end aluminium prices and see around 40-50% upside over the next three years in our base case. Aluminium supply will likely be constrained by decarbonisation and thus aluminium is highly leveraged to global growth.”
MORGAN STANLEY “Copper is likely to remain volatile and vulnerable to macro moves, with low inventories and relatively light positioning, while new rules in Malaysia are tightening scrap markets. We see downside to prices from 2022 as supply grows faster than demand, tipping the balance into surplus.”
Strong dollar as a check
The movement in the US dollar will also be a major factor . The dollar and commodity prices are inversely correlated. That is, a strong dollar will result in weak commodity prices. Since commodity prices are denominated in dollar, that makes it costlier for buyers when the US dollar strengthens. Conversely, weakness in the US dollar makes it cheaper for the buyers and can drive the commodity prices higher.
The US is in the process of tightening its policy. Accordingly, the US Federal Reserve will end its bond purchases by March this year. In its December economic projections, the Fed has hinted at the possibility of three rate hikes in 2022. The US 10Yr Treasury yields have risen from around 1.4 per cent to 1.76 per cent now. Market is now expecting a much faster pace of rate hikes by the Fed. Though the US dollar index has been broadly in the range of 95.50-97, a further surge in the Treasury yields can take the dollar index above 97 towards 98 initially. A further rise past 98 can take the dollar index up to 100 and 102 levels in 2022. Unless the Fed changes its stance by hinting at a slower pace of rate hike or fewer than three hikes in 2022 on the back of the Omicron effect, the dollar is likely to remain strong in 2022 which in turn can drag metal prices this year.
Base Metal Technical Forecast and Outlook
On the charts, there is no confirmed top as of now. There could be room for the base metals to move up from current levels in the first quarter of 2022. Thereafter, the prices can top out and see a sharp reversal for the rest of 2022
Base metal index
The Bloomberg Base Metal Spot Price Index surged from 142.57 in March 2020 to 300 in October last year. It is currently at 281.57. As seen from the quarterly chart, there is room to test/close at 285 in the first quarter of 2022. That is, the index has chances to revisit 300 levels and then come down again. But thereafter, the chances are high for the index to tumble towards 240-230 in 2022. Intermediate support is at 260.
A break below it will pave the way for the above-mentioned fall to 240-230. The possible reversal in the index also indicates that the cycle could be turning down in the commodity prices. The room to test 300 before the sharp reversal indicates that base metal prices can continue to remain higher and even move up in the first quarter of 2022. Thereafter the prices can top out and see a strong reversal for the rest of the year as the index starts to fall, breaking below 260.
Levels to watch
Supports: 260; 230.
Resistances: 285; 300
Nickel Reports 2022
The LME Nickel 3-month rolling forwards contract can move up to $22,000 and even $23,000-$24,000 per tonne in the first quarter of 2022. Thereafter it can come down to $20,000-$18,000. Broadly, $18,000-23,000 can be the range of trade in 2022. A strong break below $18,000 can bring the prices under pressure for a steeper fall.
Since other base metals are looking vulnerable for a sharp fall, the chances of LME Nickel breaking below $18,000 are also high. Such a break will drag the prices lower to $16,000 initially. A further break below $16,000 can then drag the contract down to $14,000-12,000 eventually.
Levels to watch
Supports: $18,000; $16,000; $12,000
Resistances: $22,000; $24,000
Lead Reports 2022
The LME Lead 3-month rolling forwards has been broadly oscillating in a range of $1,500-2,800 pertonne since 2010. The contract is currently trading at $2,278 per tonne. There is room for a rise to $2,600 in the next two-three months. We expect the sideways range to remain intact. As such, we can expect LME Lead prices to go down from the $2,600-2,700 region towards $2,200-2,100 initially.
Thereafter a corrective bounce to $2,400 is possible. A fresh fall again from around $2,400 can drag the prices down to $2,000 in the final quarter of 2022. As we expect the sideways range to remain intact, $1,800-1,600, the lower end of the range, can be tested in 2023.
Levels to watch
Supports: $2,100; $2,000; $1,800
Resistances: $2,600; $2,700
Zinc Reports 2022
The LME Zinc 3-month rolling forwards contract is relatively better placed on the charts. That is, there is still scope for a rise from current levels. However, strong resistance in the $3,900-4,000 region can cap the upside. It is currently trading at $3,533 per tonne. The price action since 2008 is in the form of a channel.
Though the upper end of this channel has already been tested in October last year, there are chances to revisit the levels of $3,900 again in the next couple of months. Thereafter a fresh fall to $3,400-$,3,200 can be seen initially. After a corrective bounce to $3,500, LME Zinc prices can fall back again, targeting $2,800 on the downside.
Copper Reports 2022
LME-Copper 3-month rolling forwards has been volatile in the broad range of $8,700-$10,750 per tonne since April last year. The contract is currently trading at $9,647. A rise to $10,200-10,500 is likely in the next couple of months. But thereafter, prices are likely to come down towards $8,700 — the lower end of the range again.
We see high chances of the contract breaking the range below $8,700 sometime in the second quarter of 2022. Such a break can take the prices initially down to the intermediate support level of $8,300. After a corrective bounce from $8,300 to $8,500-8,600, LME Copper prices can eventually break below $8,300 and see a steeper fall to $7,500-7,300. Thereafter, a corrective bounce to $8,500 is possible. The bearish view could go wrong if the LME-Copper breaks above $10,500 decisively.
Levels to watch
Supports: $8,700; $8,300; $7,500
Resistances: $10,300; $10,500; $10,700
Aluminium Reports 2022
The Aluminium 3-month rolling forwards contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) made a peak of $3,229 per tonne in October last year and fell sharply from there. However, the prices found support at ₹2,510 in November and have started to bounce back again. The contract is currently at $2,914.
A rise to $3,000 is possible from here. Even if a break above $3,000 is seen, it may not sustain. As such, $3,100-3,200 can be a cap from here. Thereafter, a fresh fall to $2,600-2,500 can be seen. A short-lived bounce to $2,700 from $2,500 cannot be ruled out. However, the broader picture will remain weak. As such, a break below $2,500 can drag the LME Aluminium price down to $2,300 towards the end of 2022. The expected path of move could be a rise to $3,000-3,100 first and then a fall to $2,500-$2,300.
ALUMINIUM: On-warrant inventories of aluminium in LME-registered warehouse were at 550,700 tonnes, their lowest since December 2005, having shed about 160,000 tonnes in the past two sessions.
Low inventories and higher power prices underpinned LME aluminium , which bucked the wider downward trend in metals to remain flat at $2,923 a tonne.
PREMIUM: China’s Yangshan copper premium for refined copper imports, a good gauge of China’s import demand, slipped to $78 a tonne, its lowest since August.
Levels to watch
Supports: $2,500; $2,300
Resistances: $3,000; $3,100; $3,200
OTHER METALS Reports 2022: LME zinc lost 0.8% to $3,559 a tonne, lead added 0.9% to $2,307, tin was flat at $39,305 and nickel ceded 1.2% to $20,385.
This has been a great year from the equity market perspective and specifically within that, the mid and smallcaps. As a sector, you rightly pointed out that metals has been a stellar performer. What we have seen in the metals pack clearly is that the role of China is changing. Structurally China’s policies have shifted from being growth focussed in the last two decades to being aware on the environment front and controlling pollution. What this means is from a decarbonisation perspective, there is likely to be supply constraints which continue where China is concerned.
One of the key factors and events to watch out for will be the Winter Olympics and post that, how the policy initiatives for China continue. If the focus continues to remain in terms of controlling pollution, then the supply-demand dynamics remains favourable for the metals pack. At this point in time, between ferrous and non-ferrous metals, our preference has been slightly towards the non-ferrous pack, especially aluminium, where demand-supply dynamics are favourable and that is likely to be supportive from a price perspective.
Also, where Indian companies are concerned, what we have seen over the last year, year and a half is that there has been a significant amount of balance sheet deleveraging and debt reduction. We have some exposure to companies which have seen improvement on balance sheet characteristics and where valuations are also favourable. Structurally near term, there could be some degree of volatility because of question marks in terms of demand continuity, especially in China. Given what is happening on the real estate side, if the policy focus remains on decarbonisation, we believe on a slightly longer term basis, demand-supply dynamics for the metals pack remains favourable.
Experts said that copper, zinc, aluminium and lead prices will stabilise in the next one or two quarters after keeping rising for most of the year in 2021.
Global metal prices will face downward pressure amid concerns about inflation all over the world, the interest rate hike cycle adopted by central banks and slowing of the industrial activity from its peak in 2020 on rising prices. Sandeep Daga, founder and director of Regsus Consulting, said: “High metal prices have stifled the demand in some Asian countries, except for India, China and Southeast Asia. Most metals may be in surplus in 2022, which seems very natural, as demand will slow down and supply may gradually recover. This means that high prices will gradually decline in the next six months. When demand and supply reach a balance, prices will become more acceptable to consumers. “
