The US average retail price for regular gasoline on March 4, 2019, was $2.42 per gallon (gal), an increase of 11 cents/gal from the February average of $2.31/gal and 14 cents/gal lower than the price at the same time last year, according to a latest update from the EIA. Most of the fluctuation is the result of changes in crude oil prices.
Retail gasoline prices tend to be lowest in the winter months (December–-February) before increasing in the spring. This trend occurs, in part, because refineries begin producing summer-grade gasoline, which is more expensive to manufacture, in February and March after they have produced enough winter-grade gasoline to last through the winter driving season.
During the 2018–19 winter driving season, the lowest weekly average price of retail gasoline was in the first week of January at $2.24/gal. The lowest average price in the past decade occurred in mid-February 2016, when low crude oil prices contributed to retail gasoline prices hitting a low of $1.72/gal.
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US regular gasoline prices averaged $2.31/gal from December 2018 through February 2019. In 2019, EIA expects that the monthly average price of US regular gasoline will peak in June at $2.57/gal and anticipates that prices will remain relatively flat in the third quarter before decreasing slightly in the fourth quarter to account for the seasonality of gasoline grades and driving seasons.
EIA forecasts that US regular gasoline prices will average $2.47/gal in 2019 and $2.56/gal in 2020.
