The channel breakout indicates the pullback from the September high of $1,557 has ended. The outlook, however, would turn bullish once the yellow metal invalidates the bearish lower highs setup with a move above the 2019/Oct. 25 high of $1,518.
Gold jumped 1.11% on Thursday, confirming an upside break of the falling channel, represented by trendlines connecting 2019/Sept. 4 and Sept. 25 highs and Sept. 10 and Oct. 1 lows.
As of writing, Gold is trading largely unchanged on the day at $1,512 per Oz.
The resistance at $1,524 could be scaled as Thursday’s breakout is backed by a bullish or an above-zero reading on the MACD histogram and an above-50 reading on the 14-day relative strength index (RSI). A close above $1,524 would open the doors for $1,536 (2019/Sept. 24 high).
The outlook would turn bearish if the recent low of $1,474 is breached. The downside was consistently restricted in $1,474-$1,477 range in the second half of October.
Non-farm payrolls Forecast
Non-farm payrolls are projected to add 85,000 in October after September’s 136,000 gain. The unemployment rate is expected to rise 0.1% to 3.6%. Average hourly earnings will climb 0.3% on the month and 3.0% on the year after no monthly gain in September and a 2.9% annual increase. The labor force participation rate will remain at 63.2%. Average weekly hours will be unchanged at 34.4%.
The Employment Situation Report
The US Labor Department’s Employment Situation Report is the most comprehensive assessment of the American labor market produced by the federal government. Commonly referred to as just payrolls or non-farm payrolls for its central jobs figure, it is the most widely followed and important US economic statistic.
The report consists of information gathered by two separate surveys. The establishment survey polls executives of non-farm businesses about various and detailed aspects of their businesses. It produces the payrolls numbers, wages, weekly hours, labor force participation rate and other statistics.
The household survey selects a representative sample of US households and asks if its members are part of the non-military working age population, if they are employed and if not when they last looked for work. The BLS computes its various unemployment rates from the answers.
The unemployment rate normally cited by economists and reported in the media is the U-3 rate. Inclusion as unemployed is limited to non-working individuals who have looked for a job in the month prior to the survey. Any individual who is not working but has not searched for work under the U-3 terms is not counted as part of the workforce.
A second unemployment rate, the U-6 or underemployment rate has a wider definition. It includes anyone who has looked for a job in the prior year. It is considered by many analysts a more accurate measure of joblessness.
The monthly payroll figures also incorporate an estimate for the number of new jobs created. The BLS utilizes its so-called birth–death model to project the new hires each month based on past labor market performance.
Payroll data is one of the most up-to-date of government statistics as its data is about one month old.
Once total payrolls have been reported to the government the estimated figures are revised against actual tax rolls in the annual baseline revision. Adjustment are often 500,000 a year or more.
Payrolls and the GDP
The gradual decline in payrolls this year has tracked the slippage in GDP and the plunge in business sentiment.
Economic growth has slowed from 3.1% in the first quarter to 2.0% in the second and 1.9% in the third.
Non-farm payrolls have dropped from 245,000 in the 3-month moving average in January to 157,000 in September. The descent has been measured though punctuated by two anomalous months, February and May with payroll totals far below trend.
अंतर्राष्ट्रीय बाजार में कच्चा तेल मजबूती के साथ कारोबार कर रहा है। नॉयमेक्स क्रूड 0.22 फीसदी की तेजी के साथ 55.00 डॉलर के आस-पास नजर आ रहा है। वहीं ब्रेंड क्रूड में तेजी दिख रही है और ये 0.40 फीसदी की मजबूती के साथ 61 डॉलर के आस-पास कारोबार कर रहा है।
अंतर्राष्ट्रीय बाजार में सोने में तेजी नजर आ रही है और कोमेक्स पर सोना 0.22 फीसदी की मजबूती के साथ 1500.00 डॉलर पर कारोबार कर रहा है। वहीं चांदी में मजबूती दिखाई दे रही है और कोमेक्स पर चांदी 0.24 फीसदी की बढ़त के साथ 18 डॉलर के आस-पास कारोबार कर रही है।