Gold Silver Reports (GSR) – The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) both meet this week
✅ RBA on Tuesday 6 August 2018 (statement at 0130GMT)
✅ RBNZ on Thursday 9 August (statement on Wednesday 8 August at 2100GMT)
But, that is not all of interest from the two Banks this this week … (ps. both the RBA and RBNZ will be on hold)
Via ANZ a quickie what to expect
RBA
✅ meets on Tuesday
✅ Governor Lowe speech on Wednesday, the Q&A is worthy of watching
✅ will release new forecasts in the SoMP on Friday
✅ We expect no change in forecasts but some slightly more cautious language around inflation, given the disappointment in Q2 CPI data
✅ The AUD OIS curve is flat enough at the moment (with a full hike priced in for June 2019), and we think that only a material downgrade in the language (unlikely, in our view) can affect the AUD. The global backdrop will dominate, with developments on the trade front likely to drive the AUD more than domestic dynamics.
RBNZ:
✅With growth weakening but inflation gradually lifting, the RBNZ’s MPS is a must watch as we attempt to work out how sensitive the Bank is to shifts in growth and inflation, particularly as the market gets to know the new governor.
✅ We are not expecting the OCR track to alter, but it is the first place the market looks for the drift of the RBNZ’s thinking.
✅ Risks remain skewed to the downside for the NZD, in our view.
