Crude Oil price might be undergoing a gruesome disappointment if OPEC+ is unable to overdeliver on market expectations. With several analysts penciling in a delay between three to six months, OPEC+ is forced to at least deliver a 6 months production normalization delay. Preferably even longer, with anything less than 6 months set to push Oil prices further down ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s presidency.
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With the leg lower this week, the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $70.17 triggered a firm rejection on Wednesday. Should the OPEC+ communication be able to initiate a spike, look for $71.46 with the 100-day SMA at $71.65 as thick resistance. In case Oil traders can plough through that level, $75.27 is up next on the topside as pivotal level.
On the other side, traders see $67.12 – a level that held the price in May and June 2023 – rapidly nearing. In case that breaks, the 2024 year-to-date low emerges at $64.75, followed by $64.38, the low from 2023 will quickly be tested for more downside.
Crude Oil news and market movers: OPEC+ headline risk
- Reuters reports that the OPEC+ meeting has begun at 11:00 GMT.
- More headlines throughout this Thursday, with Reuters citing sources and delegates that an agreement in principal is there for a delay. The timing is still under discussion.
- The overnight Crude stockpile change numbers from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) were completely different from the numbers seen earlier this week from the American Petroleum Institute (API). Whereas the API saw a surprise build of 1.232 million barrels, the EIA number came in as a surprise drawdown of 5.073 million barrels.
- OPEC+ is likely to extend their oil output cuts – originally scheduled to start in January – by at least three months, Reuters said in a Thursday report, citing OPEC+ sources.
