Gold Price Forecast: Gold prices were trading flat in India on Tuesday, on weak global cues. On Multi Commodity Exchange, gold August futures were trading lower at Rs 50,642 per 10 gram. Silver September futures fell Rs 238 or 0.42 per cent to Rs 56,527 per kg. Globally, yellow metal prices neared a nine-month low as the U.S. dollar strengthened to its highest level in 20 years, stifling demand for greenback-priced bullion, according to Reuters. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,723. per ounce, while U.S. gold futures dipped 0.1% to $1,723.
COMEX Gold Trades
COMEX gold trades mixed near $1734/oz and has tested a fresh Sep.2021 low. Gold trades near a 9-month low weighed down by persistent strength in the US dollar. The US dollar index has jumped to 2002 high on safe haven buying and tightening expectations. Also weighing on gold price is correction across commodities which has dented gold’s appeal as an inflation hedge. ETF outflows show weaker investor interest. Concerns are also high about consumer demand in China amid virus related restrictions. Gold is a safe haven and global growth worries are high however it has failed to benefit due to continuing strength in the US dollar and this may not change ahead of US inflation data later this week.
MCX Gold August futures
Gold prices traded steady on Tuesday with spot gold prices at COMEX were trading near marginal up near $1735 per ounce in the morning trade. MCX Gold August futures opened firm near Rs. 50695 per 10 gram following weaker rupee. Gold prices traded lower in previous trading as the dollar index hit a fresh 20 years high, trading above 108 on Tuesday. The market players are awaiting US inflation data on Wednesday raising speculative bets for the yellow metal. We expect gold prices to trade sideways to down for the day with COMEX Spot gold support at $1712 and resistance at $1752 per ounce. MCX Gold August support lies at Rs. 50200 and resistance at Rs. 50945 per 10 gram.
Precious Metal
Gold prices have been under sustained pressure thanks to a surging dollar. The currency has managed to maintain pressure over the precious metal, even as there is expectation of June inflation numbers coming in at 8.8% . Gold is desperately trying to hold on to its $1712 support levels, but this is sure to be tested after tomorrow’s inflation data, as a higher inflation number will force the FED’s hand to increase interest rates by 0.75% . Till then the negative to sideways trend will continue.
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The firm US dollar has caused gold to drop temporarily to $1,720 today. Ongoing and robust ETF outflows are weighing on the yellow metal as well, economists at Commerzbank report.
” सोने की कीमत में किसी भी महत्वपूर्ण या स्थायी वृद्धि को न केवल फर्म अमेरिकी डॉलर द्वारा बल्कि चल रहे और मजबूत ईटीएफ बहिर्वाह से भी रोका जा रहा है।”
“ब्लूमबर्ग द्वारा ट्रैक किए गए गोल्ड ईटीएफ ने पिछले सप्ताह 29 टन का बहिर्वाह दर्ज किया, जो आठ सप्ताह में सबसे अधिक स्पष्ट है और लगातार चौथे सप्ताह (बढ़ती गति के साथ)।”
“सट्टा वित्तीय निवेशक देर से सोने से आगे निकल रहे हैं। CFTC के आँकड़ों के अनुसार, उनका शुद्ध लॉन्ग पोजीशन तीन वर्षों में अपने सबसे निचले स्तर पर है।”
Bears need a daily closing below the rising trendline support of $1,733 to validate the bear flag. If the bearish continuation pattern materializes, a test of the $1,700 mark remains inevitable.