The Federal Reserve and its leaders have done something unusual in 2019 for central bankers. They admitted they were wrong in their short-term and long-term outlook for the U.S. economy.
Global Economic
Gold Prices Blast – PMI Data @ 47.8%; September Manufacturing ISM
The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The September PMI® registered 47.8 percent, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the August reading of 49.1 percent. The New Orders Index registered 47.3 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the August reading of 47.2 percent.
Gold Boom Higher on Lackluster Non-Farm Payrolls Data – Gold Silver Reports
The increase in new jobs for July was downwardly revised to 159,000 from 164,000 and June’s figure was cut to 178,000 from 193,000. Average hourly earnings was a bright spot, rising by 0.4% in August and 3.2% over the year, beating expectations. The market reacted to the jobs data with a sharp rally in gold and the US dollar weakening against its major counterparts.
Global Economic Data to Watch Friday, September 6
In much the same way as the US economy’s Manufacturing PMI, the health and pace of the German industrial sector is also the driving force not only for its domestic economy but really for that of the European Union as a whole.
The Federal Reserve is Expected to Deliver a 25bp Cut at Each of the Next Five Meetings
The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver a 25bp cut at each of the next five meetings; the target range would also be most likely lowered to 0.75-1.00 percent at the March meeting, according to the latest research report from Danske Bank.
ECB Expected – Interest Rate Unchanged at 0% as Expected
“ECB expects interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels at least through the first half of 2020, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure continued sustained convergence of inflation to its aim over the medium term.”
Chair Jerome H. Powell – Welcoming Remarks & Outlook
Good morning everyone and thank you to President Rosengren and the Boston Fed for hosting this conference. -The Federal Reserve is strongly committed to stress testing as a cornerstone of our bank supervisory and financial stability missions. Stress testing is perhaps the most successful supervisory innovation of the post-crisis era. But if stress tests are to continue to serve their critical function, they will need to evolve in the years ahead to keep pace with the ever-changing financial system, as they have since the first round of tests in 2009.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Declined in June
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in June, following an increase in May. The Index now stands at 121.5 (1985=100), down from 131.3 in May. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased from 170.7 to 162.6. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – decreased from 105.0 last month to 94.1 this month.
Coming Days Bullion Market Crash Will Set Off The Biggest Gold Panic Buying in History
Gold Silver Reports (GSR) – While the US and global economies have continued as usual since the Fed and central banks stepped in and propped up the collapsing markets in 2008, this was a one-time deal that can’t be used again.
The Federal Reserve’s Interest Rates will be Decided Today in the US
Gold Silver Reports (GSR) – In the US today, the Federal Reserve will decide on interest rates and before that the move of gold has narrowed down to a small extent. The eye of the market rests on the decision of this meeting. Meanwhile, there is news from the United States about the trade war with China. US President Donald Trump has expressed hope of a reconciliation between the two countries.