MCX Crude Oil Tips Update 11 July 2023: U.S. crude-oil stockpiles are expected to have fallen slightly from the previous week in data due Wednesday from the Department of Energy.
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The average of estimates from 10 analysts and traders showed U.S. commercial crude-oil stockpiles are projected to have declined by 100,000 barrels for the week ended July 7. Forecasters were split, with five analysts predicting a decline and five forecasting an increase. Expectations range from a decrease of 3.1 million barrels to an increase of 3 million barrels.
The forecasts for a small decrease come as the DOE wraps up a months-long process of selling crude oil from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the commercial side. Last week’s sale was for a relatively small 400,000 barrels, according to preliminary data, which would bring those emergency crude supplies down to a nearly 40-year low of 346.8 million barrels.
The closely watched inventory data from the DOE’s Energy Information Administration are scheduled for release at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
Gasoline inventories are expected to fall by 1.1 million barrels from the previous week, according to analysts. Estimates range from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 1.5 million barrels.
Stocks of distillates, which are mostly diesel fuel, are expected to slip by 100,000 barrels from the previous week. Forecasts range from a decrease of 2 million barrels to an increase of 2.5 million barrels.
Refinery use likely rose by 0.2 percentage point from the previous week at 91.3%. Forecasts range from a decrease of 0.6 percentage point to an increase of 1 percentage point. Two analysts didn’t make a forecast.
Again Capital | 2.1 | -1.7 | -1.1 | -0.6 |
Commodity Research Group | 1.9 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 1 |
Confluence Investment Management | -2.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1 |
DNT | 1.2 | -0.8 | 0.5 | -0.3 |
Excel Futures | -3.1 | -2.7 | -1.8 | 0.6 |
Spartan Capital Securities | 1.5 | -1.3 | 0.8 | n/f |
Mizuho | -2 | -1 | -0.5 | -0.6 |
Price Futures Group | 3 | -3 | -2 | unch |
Ritterbusch and Associates | -1.3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.3 |
Tradition Energy | -2.2 | -2 | -1 | n/f |
AVERAGE | -0.1 | -1.1 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
n/f = no forecast
unch = unchanged
Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.
Source: Dow Jones Newswires