Gold Silver Reports (GSR) – The rupee slid to an unprecedented 69.0925 per dollar last month. It ended up 0.1 percent at 68.7725 on Wednesday.
The negatives responsible for the rupee’s recent slide — elevated oil prices and a strong dollar — have run their course, Aditya Pugalia, Dubai-based director of financial markets at the bank, said in an interview.
“While these factors may continue to weigh on the rupee in the immediate term, they are likely to dissipate in the medium term,” said Pugalia, who had the most accurate estimates in Bloomberg’s quarterly rankings. A proactive inflation-targeting central bank will likely put a floor under the currency over the next three months, he said.
Emirates’ rupee forecasts — 67.5 to the dollar by end-September and 67 by end-2018 — are at odds with a bleak broader outlook for the currency. Macquarie Bank expects it to hit 71 early next year, while DBS Group Holdings Ltd. has forecast a similar level by June 2019. Barclays Plc sees the currency at 72 by year-end.
Here are some other comments Pugalia made during the interview:
✅ “I don’t see the rupee depreciating below 69 for some time. INR at 69 should provide a boost to exports. That’s why you see no comments from the finance minister about the rupee. They’re happy as long as the rupee remains within a tight range and isn’t too volatile”
✅ “It’s likely that we will see another rate hike from the Reserve Bank of India. That should provide a little bit of buffer to the rupee”
✅ “India is also caught in a trade war with the U.S. A lot of the focus is currently being placed on U.S. and China. It’s effectively the U.S. vs the world. The current depreciation in rupee will negate some of the negative implications of tariffs”
