Gold Trading Forecast: COMEX gold trades marginally lower near $1678/oz weighed down by firmness in the US dollar and bond yields. The US 10-year yield has jumped to 2011 high in reaction to Fed’s aggressive monetary tightening stance however spread between 2-year and 10-year yield has narrowed.
The US dollar is still near its 2002 high but has lost some momentum following Bank of Japan’s intervention in the currency market. Gold has weathered the central bank decisions and managed to hold above recent lows indicating that dip buyers have emerged however a sustained rise is unlikely until the US dollar corrects significantly.
Gold gained some momentum, but was flat as the dollar held close to its recent peak while the likelihood of more aggressive interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve also weighed on the appeal for non-yielding bullion. Updates regarding Russia -Ukraine war is once again in highlights after President Putin’s comments regarding partial mobilization and also referendum in Ukraine this weekend supporting the safe haven assets.
The dollar index was down 0.1%, but not far from a 20-year peak, while the U.S. 10Y yield continued to inch higher, currently hovering above the 3.7 mark, in the wake of a 75 bps rate hike by the U.S. central bank and its hawkish outlook. Many central banks raised their interest rates this week, following the U.S. Federal Reserve in the fight against inflation, which has been sending shockwaves through financial markets and the economy.
On data front, number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week, indicating the labour market remains tight despite the Fed’s attempt to cool demand with aggressive rate hikes. Today the focus will be on the preliminary Manufacturing and Service PMI data expected from major economies and comments from Governor Powell. Broader trend on COMEX could be in the range of $1645-1695 and on domestic front prices could hover in the range of Rs 49,500-50400.
फेड आउटलुक और भू-राजनीतिक जोखिमों के बीच सोने की कीमत कमजोर बनी हुई है। सप्ताह के अंत में होने वाले प्रवाह और अमेरिकी डॉलर में लाभ लेने से GOLD को उबरने में मदद मिल सकती है। नोट के आगे पॉवेल के भाषण के साथ GOLD अपने रेंज ट्रेड को बरकरार रख सकता है।