Gold Silver Reports (GSR) – A Shutdown This Week? Because Of Trump, Definitely Possible — One of the less-discussed consequences of Democrat Conor Lamb’s victory in last week’s special election in Pennsylvania is that a congressionally-caused government shutdown when the current continuing resolution expires this Friday is now far less likely.
House and Senate Republicans won’t want to add any fuel to what, especially after Pennsylvania, increasingly looks like a GOP midterm election dumpster fire. Congressional Democrats won’t want to shift the story away from their Republican colleagues’ political agita by taking the blame for the federal government shutting down.
either elect more Republican Senators in 2018 or change the rules now to 51%. Our country needs a good “shutdown” in September to fix mess!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 2, 2017
But saying that a government shutdown won’t happen because of congressional actions doesn’t mean the government won’t shutdown. President Donald Trump’s positions and demands are so erratic that the possibility of a White House-induced shutdown cannot and must not be dismissed out of hand.
Indeed, with his bizarre firing of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, his hiring of Larry Kudlow to head the National Economic Council apparently without telling anyone else he was doing it, his tariff proposals, his first-you-see-it-now-you-don’t-like indications that major changes are coming in his senior staff and cabinet, all things Stormy Daniels and the firing of former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe two days before he was set to retire, Trump’s actions show that he is now far more erratic and much less willing to listen to either the more institutional members of his own administration or the GOP congressional leadership.
Long-time politicos, Congress watchers and budget analysts will cringe at the implications of this new level of White House inconsistency, bullying and unpredictability. But given his recent behavior, even if it might create additional reelection problems for House and Senate Republicans Trump could easily decide that now is the time for the “good shutdown” he started threatening 10 months ago.
In this environment, Trump won’t need a pre-stated reason to veto the omnibus funding bill that Congress seems poised to adopt this week. He could just decide off the top of his head that a shutdown is a good idea that will give him some kind of added leverage, demonstrate his dealmaking abilities or show his own people he’s in charge.
But there are also several specific issues that could raise Trump’s hackles enough to get him to veto the omnibus and cause a shutdown.
For example, Congress might not (and probably won’t) provide any new funds for the wall he wants to build between the U.S. and Mexico. This was the subject of a nonsensical Trump photo op last week and the image of the prototypes he viewed could still be very fresh in his mind.
Congress also might not (and probably won’t) include the additional tax cut Trump discussed last week with House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady (R-TX), or it might not approve all of the tax reduction provisions he wants.
The omnibus bill could also (and probably will) disregard the proposals included in the Trump budget to spend less on domestic programs than the budget deal allows.
Read More: Powell Jumps in Driver’s Seat as Fed Weighs Speed of Rate Hikes
And, of course, the bill could include something (or anything) on the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program that Trump considers objectionable. Given his propensity to rapidly change his mind, this could even include the short-term deal Trump proposed last week.
Because of all this, as the week begins I’m saying that there’s a 25 percent chance of a federal government shutdown this coming weekend. But stay tuned. The Trump White House is easily capable of quickly spiking that number over the next few days. – Neal Bhai Reports (NBR) INDIA
